Seasonality Snapshot

Vanguard Total Market (VTI)

ETF · US · Index Funds & ETFs
✓ VERIFIED · 15YR REAL DATA
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
SEASONAL TAILWIND — October
Strongest Month
November
+3.43% avg · 87% win rate
Weakest Month
September
-1.18% avg · 50% win rate
MonthAvg ReturnWin Rate
January +1.42% 63%
February +1.03% 56%
March +0.10% 69%
April +1.63% 75%
May +1.24% 75%
June +1.37% 69%
July +2.43% 81%
August +0.30% 63%
September -1.18% 50%
October NOW +2.05% 63%
November +3.43% 87%
December +0.30% 60%
These figures are computed from 15 years of actual monthly closing prices. Past seasonal patterns are not a guarantee of future performance. See our methodology for how this is calculated, or visit the Academy to learn how to read seasonal data responsibly.

Vanguard Total Market seasonality — common questions

What is Vanguard Total Market's best month historically?
Historically, November has been Vanguard Total Market's strongest month, averaging +3.43% with a 87% win rate over 15 years of data. September has been the weakest at -1.18%.
Is Vanguard Total Market seasonal?
Vanguard Total Market shows a measurable seasonal pattern: its best and worst months differ by 4.61 percentage points on average. These figures come from 15 years of real monthly closing prices. Seasonality is a historical tendency, not a prediction.
How does Vanguard Total Market historically perform in October?
Vanguard Total Market is currently in October, which has historically averaged +2.05% with a 63% win rate. That has historically been a seasonally favourable window.

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